Poll: Donald Trump Now Leads Joe Biden in National Popular Vote
by Michael Patrick Leahy
President Donald Trump now leads Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden in the national popular vote by one point, according to the Sunday Express/Democracy Institute Poll released on Sunday.
The poll found that 46 percent of likely voters nationwide support Trump while 45 percent support Biden.
The poll of 1,500 likely voters was conducted between September 30 and October 2 and has a margin of error of 2.5 percent, which means the results indicate a statistical tie between Trump and Biden. The poll surveyed voters in the wake the first presidential debate between Trump and Biden on September 29. Trump announced that he tested positive for Chinese coronavirus in the early hours of Friday, October 2, the last day of the poll.
With four weeks and two days until the November 3, 2020, general election, the poll results provide encouraging news to the Trump campaign after the announcement early Friday morning that the president had been diagnosed with Chinese coronavirus and is currently hospitalized and being treated at Walter Reed Hospital.
The poll released by the same polling firm one month earlier on August 29 showed Trump with a three point lead over Biden, 48 percent to 45 percent, indicating a two point drop for Trump, though Biden’s support has not increased.
The Real Clear Politics Average of Polls, which does not include the Sunday Express/Democracy Institute Poll among polls included in its average, currently shows Biden with a 7.6 point lead over President Trump in the national popular vote.
An IBD/TIPP Poll released on Friday, which is included in the polling average, shows Biden with a three point lead over Trump in the national popular vote.
A Zogby Poll, released on Saturday, also excluded from the average, shows Biden with a two point lead over Trump in the national popular vote, within that poll’s margin of error.
The Sunday Express/Democracy Institute Poll released on Sunday found that 18 percent of Black voters support Trump, a significant increase from the eight percent who supported him in 2016.